When poker enthusiasts try to measure a player’s skill, one of the first inquiries is: “What’s his ROI?” (Return on Investment). This might sound logical—after all, it tells you how much a player wins per dollar spent on buy-ins. But in online multi-table tournaments (MTTs), a single ROI figure can be dangerously misleading, especially when comparing different field sizes and tournament structures.
1. A Quick Refresher: What’s ROI, Really?
ROI is a simple ratio:
If you invest $1,000 in buy-ins and cash out $1,200, your ROI is 20%. At first glance, that’s a neat number to show profitability—but it’s missing critical context like field size, game format, rake structure, and player pool toughness.
2. Why Larger Fields Are Softer by Definition
When it comes to online MTTs, larger fields are almost always softer, and it’s not just about buy-ins. Even if we imagine a scenario where the buy-in is the same, a bigger field of, say, 10,000 entries will typically have a lower average skill level than a smaller one with just 500 or 1,000 entries. Why?
Finite Pool of Skilled Players
There is a limited number of truly good players in any poker ecosystem. The top professionals or competent regulars can only play so many tables at once—there’s a physical and mental cap.
When you have a 10,000-runner event, it’s impossible for every seat to be filled with a strong player because there simply aren’t that many winning regs to go around. Consequently, a larger proportion of the field is made up of recreational or less-experienced players.
Skilled Players Prioritize Bigger Buy-Ins
Even if the 10,000-runner event has the same buy-in as a 1,000-runner event, strong players often prioritize tournaments with higher stakes or better expected value in their schedules. They can’t be everywhere at once.
This scheduling choice naturally dilutes the skill level in many larger-field MTTs, because the best grinders can’t fill enough seats to elevate the entire field’s average skill.
Recreational Players Prefer Large-Field Events
Large-field tournaments often have life-changing top prizes (relative to the buy-in), making them attractive to hobbyist players who dream of a big score for a small initial investment.
When more recreational players jump in, the overall player pool becomes softer, creating more profitable edges for skilled players.
Result: A Higher Ratio of Weak to Strong Players
If you’re a pro or well-studied reg, you’re more likely to face opponents making fundamental mistakes in a large field, simply because the ratio of recreational players is higher.
This dynamic exists regardless of buy-in size. It’s essentially math: a fixed supply of skilled players vs. a growing field of entrants.
3. Rake Is Fixed, Regardless of Field Size—But “Time to Play” Is Not
One key nuance is that MTT rake (the tournament fee) is usually a fixed percentage of the buy-in—say, 10% of each entry—regardless of whether you’re facing 1,000 or 10,000 runners.
In a $10 + $1 buy-in, each player pays $1 in rake, whether the tournament has 1,000 or 10,000 entries.
Meanwhile, the prize pool (the $10 portion) grows proportionately with more runners, and the top-heavy payout structure expands accordingly.
Implication for Bigger Fields: More “Bang for Your Buck”
Think of a large-field MTT as a cash game session with a gradually increasing blind structure (though you can’t re-buy infinitely). You’re still paying the same “entry fee” (rake), but now there are potentially many more levels—or “hands of play”—in which your skill can manifest.
Longer Playtime, Same Rake
In huge fields, the tournament often runs for many more hours if you keep advancing. You effectively see more spots to exploit mistakes.
Compare that to a smaller-field event, where you pay proportionally the same rake but face fewer total levels (or hands) before the tournament condenses.
Deeper Effective Stacks at Key Stages
As the field progresses, blind levels ramp up, but you’re often still playing against a broad mix of opponents—some of whom do not adjust properly to deep or shallow stacks.
Skill has more time to show its edge. You can pick off more mistakes from early levels all the way to the bubble and final table, especially if the average competition is softer.
4. The Cash-Game Analogy: Increasing Blinds Over Time
Picture a large-field MTT like a multi-hour cash game session where blinds periodically increase. At the time of the bubble, it’s as though chips start losing value in an “Argentina-style” inflation scenario—money is effectively leaving the prize pool as players bust. It’s complicated, but the analogy still holds:
Early Levels = Deep Stacks
You’re playing relatively deep-stacked poker against a wide variety of players, many of whom are not proficient at deep-stack play.
Middle Stages = Critical Mistakes
As blinds go up, many recreational players misjudge stack sizes, pot odds, or ICM (Independent Chip Model) considerations, leading to exploitable errors.
Late Stages = Huge Effective Bets
With blinds now high (in real-money terms), each pot is more impactful. If your opponents lack short-stack or final-table strategy, you can extract a disproportionate share of chips.
In smaller fields (especially with higher buy-ins), you pay the same rake percentage but face sharper opponents from the start. The window for capitalizing on rookie mistakes closes faster, and the deeper “real-money” play late in the tournament doesn’t offer quite the same relative edge because your opponents are typically more competent.
5. Variance, Sample Size, and Risk-Adjusted Returns
Variance—the natural swings of short-term luck—is a critical piece of the puzzle:
Sample Size
One big run can inflate your ROI for a long time, especially in large fields. If your sample size is only a few hundred MTTs, the picture might be heavily skewed by lucky timing.
In large-field online MTTs, even a couple thousand tournaments may not be enough to draw ironclad conclusions about someone’s true ROI.
Consistency
A player who frequently goes deep and final-tables across multiple formats, stakes, and field sizes shows more skill than someone whose ROI is mainly from a single heater.
Risk-Adjusted Returns
Bigger fields bring bigger swings, but they also offer larger potential paydays. Paying the same rake to play a longer format against weaker fields can be +EV if you have the bankroll and mental resilience to handle the variance.
6. Look Beyond ROI: Other Indicators of Skill
In-The-Money (ITM) Rate
How consistently a player cashes—especially across different tournament buy-ins—can be telling. But min-cashing too often without many deep runs can inflate ITM%. Also, shark scope does not track this well, as you can buy at a higher itm-rate with reentries and rebuys.
Deep-Run Frequency
Does the player regularly hit final tables or top 1% finishes? Since MTTs are heavily top-weighted, consistent deep runs often indicate sustainable skill.
7. The Right Questions to Ask
“Over How Many Tournaments Is This ROI Measured?”
A 30% ROI over 50 MTTs is far less meaningful than 15% over 1,000. Both are less useful without knowing the field sizes.
“What Are the Field Sizes and Buy-Ins?”
A 10% ROI at $109 might be more indicative of skill than 20% at $11 if the latter is just one big score. Again, context (sample size and field size) matters.
“How Often Do They Reach Final Tables?”
Top-heavy payout structures mean final tables are where real profit (and skill) shine, though it’s still less meaningful if we don’t know the scope of the sample.
“Do They Specialize or Show Versatility?”
Some players crush large fields but might struggle in smaller, reg-infested ones—and vice versa. However, it’s often more about variance than a true limitation; in general, better players do better across most fields over time.
8. Bringing It All Together
ROI Alone Is Insufficient
It’s a simple formula that overlooks the key variables of field softness, structure, and sample size.
Fixed Rake, Larger Field = Extended Play Against Weaker Opponents
In big fields, you effectively buy yourself more “time” to exploit mistakes for the same fee. This can enhance your edge if you have the bankroll to withstand variance.
Context Is King
Always ask about the stakes, the field size, the format, and how many events the ROI covers. Only then can you interpret what that ROI means in terms of genuine skill.
Bottom line? When someone asks, “What’s his ROI?” in online MTTs, they’re missing the deeper story. Larger fields can yield higher nominal ROI because they offer more stages to exploit weaker players, all for the same fixed rake. But bigger fields also come with bigger swings. Ultimately, true skill in MTTs is best judged by long-term consistency, deep-run frequency, and adaptability—not a single ROI figure taken out of context.
