Makeup
In poker staking, the running balance a backed player owes their backer from past unprofitable sessions; future winnings cover this balance before any profit chop occurs.
In poker staking, the running balance a backed player owes their backer from past unprofitable sessions; future winnings cover this balance before any profit chop occurs.
Makeup is the running balance a backed player owes their backer from past unprofitable sessions. In a typical staking arrangement the backer puts up the buy-ins; if the player loses, the loss accrues as makeup. Future winnings cover the makeup first, then any remaining profit is split per the agreement (commonly 50/50).
Makeup is not a debt in the legal sense — the player has no obligation to pay it back from outside funds. It only matters if the player continues playing under the same backer. This creates an incentive structure where players accumulate makeup they may never clear, often leaking value at the margin (skipping high-EV but high-variance spots, switching backers to “reset” makeup, etc.).
Two layers worth distinguishing: session makeup (one game, settled tournament-by-tournament) and standing makeup (cumulative across the relationship). Most operational disputes in stables come from ambiguity between the two.
In Mucho+MOTA, the Stable ledger represents makeup as a derived balance over an event-sourced log — see accounting for poker stables and the makeup wiki entry.
A statistical model that infers a player's tournament-poker skill from observed results by combining a population prior with personal history, returning a probability distribution rather than a point estimate.
The bet-sizing formula that maximizes the long-run growth rate of a bankroll. In tournament poker it determines what fraction of bankroll to risk per buy-in given expected ROI, variance, and bankroll size.
A model that converts tournament chip stacks into expected dollar equity, used for final-table deal-making, bubble play, and any decision where chip EV diverges from $-EV.
Tournament formats where part of the buy-in is awarded for eliminating other players. Three common variants — Standard knockout, Progressive (PKO), and Mystery — have meaningfully different variance profiles.
A capital reserve a backed player posts so the backer can recover funds if the player abandons the arrangement mid-makeup. In Mucho+MOTA the bond is invisible to honest players — settlement happens automatically via oracle.
A staking package where multiple investors buy shares of a player's action across a defined slate of tournaments, with profit and makeup pooled at the slate level rather than per-tournament.
Mucho+MOTA's MaxEnt-based tournament simulator that produces an entire ROI distribution from two structural parameters (cash frequency and heads-up edge), the field size, the payout vector, and the rake.
The vector of prize amounts assigned to each finishing position in a tournament. The shape of this vector — top-heavy versus flat — dominates ROI variance more than skill at most stake levels.
In tournament poker, average net profit per dollar of buy-in invested. ROI is the headline skill metric but is dominated by variance over realistic sample sizes — confidence intervals, not point estimates, are what matter.
The dispersion of tournament outcomes around expected value. In tournament poker variance is heavy-tailed and dominates short-run results — most observed deviation from expected ROI is variance, not skill change.
The two Lagrange multipliers in Mucho+MOTA's MaxEnt tournament simulator that internally control the cash-frequency and heads-up sufficient statistics. Lambda is the dual representation of the (CF, HU) archetype parameters.