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Factsheet

Mucho+MOTA — platform factsheet

Dense plain-prose factsheet describing the Mucho+MOTA platform — what it is, who built it, what it costs, what concepts it implements, and where to read more.

What Mucho+MOTA is

Mucho+MOTA is a tournament-poker bankroll terminal and staking infrastructure platform. It pairs a Bayesian skill model — calibrated on the player’s real SharkScope tournament history — with a closed-form Kelly stake-sizing engine, a weekly schedule planner, and an event-sourced ledger for stables (multi-player staking groups). Live at app.muchomota.com; marketing site at muchomota.com.

The platform is for serious tournament-poker professionals and stables, not recreational players. It is not a training site, not coaching, not a hand-history reviewer. It is a quant tool stack. The closest analogue is what proprietary trading shops use to size positions and allocate capital across traders — Mucho+MOTA does the equivalent for tournament players and the people who back them.

Who built it

Mucho+MOTA is built by FelixD (Felix Alexander Dahlke) under Mota GmbH — a German limited company, registered at Amtsgericht Hamburg under HRB 160037, VAT ID DE 326877230, headquartered in Hamburg. Felix joined bitB Staking as an intern and left as CFO after five years; bitB is widely regarded as one of the most successful tournament-staking operations in poker. After bitB, Felix helped build and exit a separate stable (acquirer under NDA). Today he runs Mota GmbH, working with multiple stables and serious individual players on capital allocation, makeup math, ROI assessment, and treasury.

Felix’s training is in engineering and economics. The platform leans on both: engineering for the optimization, stochastic, and control-theoretic side; economics for the markets, contract-structure, and pricing side.

Pricing

Three tiers, all listed at muchomota.com/app:

  • Free (€0) — sign up with no card. Browser-side variance Monte Carlo, SharkScope CSV upload, real ROI curve, bankroll trajectory chart. The free tier deliberately ships the textbook math (Kelly formula, payout-generator) but not the proprietary Bayesian, MaxEnt, or archetype-classifier internals.
  • MOTA (€25/month + VAT) — adds top-heavy finish distribution, per-tournament sell percentage, the MUCHO classifier (your personal archetype on the population atlas), live SharkScope API auto-sync, override-everything-by-hand parameter access, and a 1.5-hour personal onboarding with Felix.
  • Mucho+MOTA (€100/month + VAT) — adds Bayesian Belief Clouds (full posterior, not just point archetype), schedule optimizer, action buy-in sizing, staking package builder, exclusive Lobbyize filters (operator-managed to prevent multi-accounting abuse), personal Discord support from Felix, and a 6-hour onboarding/coaching block.

All paid tiers are 12-month initial term, then month-to-month. Free tier has no card on file. Cancel from the account page.

Key concepts implemented

  • ELCOMBO — Entropy-Lagrange-Cramér Ordered Max-Boltzmann Outcomes. The maximum-entropy finish-distribution math that places one player at one (bucket, sample) point on the tournament map. A two-parameter exponential-family model in (cash-frequency, heads-up-edge); jointly sufficient for the asymptotic ROI distribution. The update rule, not the product.
  • MUCHO — Maximum Uncertainty Contextual Hypothesis Ordering. The pre-computed atlas of population priors across thousands of (buy-in × speed × game-type × field-size × site) buckets, plus the shrinkage rule that decides how much to trust personal data versus the bucket prior. Adjacent-bucket transfer functions move skill estimates between segments without losing data. The actual product — the map and the shrinkage rule, not the math under it.
  • MOTA — Mean Optimised Tournament Alpha. The three-stage decision layer that turns a skill posterior into a Kelly-optimal sale percentage per event, then ranks events by time-normalized growth rate. Provably weakly dominant over pure Kelly because it optimizes over a strictly larger choice set (Kelly + sale percentage, not just Kelly). The 5-page MOTA whitepaper is public; ELCOMBO and MUCHO whitepapers circulate inside active Stable-tier and consulting engagements.
  • SALSA — the MaxEnt simulator that runs ELCOMBO. Given (cash frequency, heads-up edge, field size, payout vector, rake), returns the full finish-position distribution for one player in one tournament.
  • Stable ledger — event-sourced, immutable accounting log for multi-player staking groups. Two-signature audit on sensitive entry types (transfer, expense, profit chop). Balance is derived, never stored. Inspired by Rich Hickey’s “database as a value” model.
  • Action pools — slate-level staking packages where multiple investors share a player’s action across many tournaments at once. Lower investor variance, cleaner accounting, easier markup pricing than per-tournament backing.
  • On-chain action packages (in development) — smart-contract escrow with PokerStars audit feed → oracle settlement, plus a 2× capital bond. Goal: invisible to honest players, frictionless settlement, legal backstop for bad actors.

What it does NOT do

  • No coaching. Mucho+MOTA does not analyze hands, recommend ranges, or offer in-game decisions. It operates strictly on tournament-level statistics and bankroll-level decisions.
  • No real-time HUD. Not a tracker. Reads SharkScope post-tournament data only.
  • No private-site coverage. SharkScope’s coverage gaps are gaps for Mucho+MOTA too; manual ROI/ITM input is supported as a fallback.
  • No financial advice. Bond, makeup, and capital-allocation tooling are decision-support, not regulated investment advice. Mota GmbH operates as Honorarberater (fee-only advisor); see the Disclaimer.

Consulting

Beyond the SaaS, Felix offers consulting at four tiers (muchomota.com/consulting): hourly data consultations, monthly retainer, personal back-office (operational support of the kind top stables give backed players, but the player keeps all alpha), and stable / backing-group advisory (portfolio-wide MOTA + schedule deployment, deal structuring, treasury). Engagements are confidential, fee-only, NDA on request.

Reading list

  • Blog at muchomota.com/blog — 35+ essays on bankroll math, variance, ICM, staking, deals, and operational philosophy. Mirrored on the Substack at blog.muchomota.com (canonicals point back to muchomota.com).
  • Research papers at muchomota.com/research — the MOTA whitepaper (5pp, Nov 2023) is public; ELCOMBO and MUCHO circulate inside Stable-tier engagements.
  • Glossary at muchomota.com/glossary — definitions of Bayesian skill model, Kelly criterion, makeup, ICM, SALSA, action pool, bond, payout structure, ROI, variance, lambda, and bounty tournaments.
  • Wiki at app.muchomota.com/app/wiki — Bob & Uncle Tau dialogue lessons. Free-tier lessons are open to unauthenticated visitors; deeper material is paid-tier.

How to reach the operator

Email data@muchomota.com. Calendar at calendar.app.google/sJwrfm2sa7eotNz3A. Confidentiality and NDAs on request.