MTT variance calculator
Enter the tournaments you play: freezeouts, PKOs or mystery bounties, one type or a mix. See where a run of that many games can end up, how deep the downswings get, and how likely you are to go broke. Each run plays your volume 1,000 times through the same engine as the MuchoMota app.
These results are for your previous inputs. Press Calculate to update them.
Profit over the run
expected · 95% · 70% · 20 sample runs
Variance in numbers
Where the run ends
Per tournament type
| Tournament | Played | Places paid | Your cash rate | EV per game | Std dev per game | First prize | EV total |
|---|
Downswings
Deepest fall from a high point, and the longest stretch without a new high, in each simulated run. Buy-ins are your average buy-in.
| Runs at least this bad | Depth (buy-ins) | Depth ($) | Longest stretch (tournaments) |
|---|
Your bankroll
This assumes you keep 100% of your action.
The free Simulation tab plays a season against Kelly sizing and selling action, with the share you sell recomputed per game from your bankroll. Compare the swings and the chance of going broke side by side.
How to read the results
Expected profit is your ROI times what you pay in buy-ins, plus rakeback. It is what you make on average, not what you should expect in one run. The 70% and 95% ranges show where that share of the 1,000 simulated runs finished. If the 95% range still includes a loss, that volume is not enough to prove a winning ROI.
Standard deviation is the typical distance from expected profit at the end of the run. It is quoted in buy-ins too, so you can compare stakes. Big fields mean bigger deviation: more of your money is in the rare deep runs.
Downswings are measured from your highest point to the lowest point after it. Read the table row by row: in the "10% of runs" row, one run in ten had a downswing at least that many buy-ins deep. The longest stretch is how many tournaments in a row went by without a new high; it can be the whole run when a run never gets back above its best point.
With a bankroll, you also get the chance of losing 30% or 50% of it at some point, and the chance of going broke, meaning you can no longer afford the buy-in. The other numbers ignore the bankroll, so they show the variance of the games alone.
How the simulation works
A better player cashes more often and also goes deeper. The engine starts from the share of the field that gets paid and raises your cash rate with your ROI. It then spreads your finishes across the paid places, more likely higher up, so that your average return matches your ROI exactly. Payouts come from MuchoMota's payout ladder for your field size and format, or from the places paid you set. In PKO and mystery bounty tournaments each paid place also carries the bounty money a player finishing there collects on average. With several tournament types, they are spread evenly through the run. It is the same engine that prices tournaments and compares staking strategies in the app.
If you have used PrimeDope's calculator, the form will feel familiar. We wrote about where the usual assumptions fall short in Flaws in Monte Carlo simulations. For the theory, read the tournament variance guide and bankroll management.
Questions
How many tournaments do I need before my ROI means something?
Set your ROI and volume and look at the 95% range. If it still crosses zero, that many tournaments cannot tell a winner from a break-even player at your field size. Large fields need thousands of tournaments.
Why is my downswing so big when my ROI is positive?
In big fields most of your profit comes from a few deep runs. Between them you lose most buy-ins you pay, so long losing stretches are normal even for strong winners. The downswing table shows how deep and how long they get.
What does "places paid" come from?
Leave it empty and it comes from MuchoMota's payout ladder for that field size and format, the same ladder the app uses to price tournaments. Enter a number to use your own.
How are PKO and mystery bounties modelled?
As part of the prize. The payout for each paid place includes the bounty money a player finishing there collects on average, from MuchoMota's bounty model fitted on published bounty payouts. Your ROI covers prizes and bounties together.
Can I simulate my whole schedule?
Yes. Add up to ten tournament types with how many of each you play, up to 5,000 tournaments in total. The types are spread evenly through the run, and the results show each type on its own as well as the mix.
Why can't I enter a negative ROI?
The engine fits a finish distribution for a winning player: it raises your cash rate and your deep-finish rate until the average return matches your ROI. At zero or below there is nothing to fit, so the calculator needs an ROI above zero.
Does this include selling action or staking?
No. These numbers assume you keep 100% of your own action. The free Simulation tab in the app runs the same kind of season against Kelly sizing and selling action, recomputed per game from your bankroll.