Ocean KO calculator
Every knockout in a GGPoker Ocean KO or a Winamax Space KO draws a random multiplier. See what a bounty in play is worth to your bankroll and the odds of every draw at every level. Then check how much softer the field has to be than the normal PKO you would otherwise play.
1 · A bounty in play
What you collect if you knock this player out, and what that is worth to your bankroll.
| Multiplier | Chance | About one in | Cash to you | Added to your head |
|---|
2 · What ROI each format needs
Start from your ROI in normal PKOs. Each row is the ROI that format needs so that your bankroll grows as fast: the Ocean KO, a normal freezeout and a mystery bounty, in a field of the same size.
| Format | ROI it needs | vs PKO | Spread per game | Results behind it |
|---|
3 · Draw odds at every tier
The higher the bounty, the narrower the draw. "Worth at most" is what a bounty is worth when it is huge next to your bankroll: the floor of the discount in part 1.
| Tier | Bounty from | Multipliers and chances | Below x1 | Top draw | Worth at most |
|---|
Every tier averages exactly 1.00x.
See what a season of PKOs does to your bankroll.
The free variance calculator shows the swings of the PKOs you play. The free Simulation tab in the app plays a season against Kelly sizing and selling action, recomputed per game from your bankroll.
The multiplier adds spread, not cost.
Jackpot bounties look scary. We measured them on 1.85 million real tournament results. The cost to a bankroll is a fraction of a point.
Most draws pay less than x1. The rare ones carry the value.
Tiers 1–10. How often each multiplier lands, and its share of all bounty money paid.
how often it lands share of the money
A bounty only loses value when it is big next to your bankroll.
What a bounty is worth to your bankroll, as a share of its average, by the cash half of the bounty divided by your bankroll. Move over the chart to read it.
① starting bounty, 100 buy-in bankroll · ② same, 20 buy-ins · ③ a 50 buy-in bounty, 100 buy-ins
Bounty money already lands at the top.
The top 12% of finishes bring in 68% of all bounty cash. The draw multiplies those deep runs, where a bankroll feels spread the least. PokerStars PKO, 301 to 1,000 players, regulars, three years.
share of bounty cash share of prize money
How to use it
- 1Value the bountyEnter it in part 1. Read "worth to your bankroll".
- 2Use your PKO toolPut that amount into the PKO calculator you already use. Big bounties on a small roll turn close calls into folds.
- 3Pick the gameIn part 2, play the format whose field is softer than its gap. Stake by the ROI in its row, not your raw one.
Questions
What are Ocean KO and Space KO?+
Progressive knockouts where every knockout draws a random multiplier for the bounty you win: GGPoker calls it Ocean KO, Winamax calls it Space KO. Half of the drawn amount is paid to you in cash, the other half goes on your own head. The tournament winner also draws for their own bounty.
Does the multiplier cost me money?+
No. At every level of both sites the published odds average exactly 1.00x, so on average you collect the bounty shown. The only cut is the tournament fee or rake you pay up front. The draw adds spread, not cost.
How much should I count a bounty for when I decide to call?+
About half of the bounty shown, in cash, the same as in a normal PKO. The calculator shows how much less that is worth to your bankroll because the draw is random. With a bankroll of a few hundred buy-ins the discount is close to nothing; it only matters when a big draw would be a large share of your roll.
What changes at the higher levels?+
Levels 1 to 10 scale with the buy-in and share one odds table. From level 11 the bounties start at fixed amounts and the table gets narrower: the top multiplier drops (on GGPoker from x400 to x50, x10, x2.5 and x1.5) and the lowest draw rises. A huge bounty is still a lottery against most bankrolls, but a much smaller one per dollar.
Why is the extra ROI so much smaller than the extra variance?+
Almost all of the extra variance comes from the rare top draws. A bankroll does not pay for variance; it pays for the growth it loses, and at a sensible stake a rare big draw barely changes the growth rate.
What is the difference between the typical case and the worst case?+
The typical case counts the draw on the winner's own bounty with the everyday multipliers. The worst case uses the full table including the top draws, and treats all the knockout cash a player collects in a deep run as one draw. The real number sits between the two and depends on how many knockouts a deep run is spread over.
Where do the numbers come from?+
The odds are the ones GGPoker and Winamax publish. The format comparison uses PokerStars results of regulars with at least 300 games in that format over the last three years: about a million PKO results, 630,000 freezeout results and 170,000 mystery bounty results, every single result, not averages. The Ocean KO and Space KO rows apply the published odds to the PokerStars PKO shape. Everything is solved exactly with log utility, the same rule as Kelly staking.
Why does a freezeout need more ROI than a PKO?+
Because more of its money sits in the top few places. In a PKO, bounties pay out all through the tournament, so results swing less. From about 300 players up a freezeout has the bigger spread per game, and the gap grows with the field: in fields of 3,001 or more a freezeout needs roughly 16.5% to match a 10% PKO.
Are mystery bounties swingier than PKOs?+
In small fields, yes, by a lot: the envelope jackpots are huge next to a 100 to 300 player prize pool. In big fields they swing about as much as a PKO or a bit less, because the bounty money is spread over many late knockouts. The comparison uses PokerStars Mystery Bounty results.
Does it change if I stake half Kelly?+
Very little. If you stake the same fraction of Kelly in both formats, the knockout format needs almost the same ROI. For a GGPoker Ocean KO at 10% ROI in fields of 301 to 1,000, the typical case moves from 10.4% at full Kelly to 10.3% at a quarter Kelly.